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Recovery of Macau Casino GGR in Late Summer Post World Cup Disturbances

Recovery of Macau Casino GGR in Late Summer Post World Cup Disturbances

Introduction

The Macau casino industry has always been under the spotlight, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) as a key performance measure. Following a downturn due to the World Cup, recent reports suggest that Macau's GGR is set to rebound in August and September.

Impact of the World Cup on Macau's GGR

Seaport Research Partners identified a drop in Macau's GGR for July. The FIFA World Cup 2026 played a major role in this, as many potential visitors postponed their trips to Macau to watch the matches. Additionally, unfavorable weather conditions further contributed to the decline in the number of tourists.

July Revenue Decline

Data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau revealed that Macau recorded a GGR of MOP20.26 billion, or approximately US$2.51 billion in July, marking an 8.4% decrease from the previous year, despite a 9.4% increase from June. Analysis points out that the premium-mass and VIP segments were notably affected, with attention diverted towards the football tournament.

Improvement in the Latter Half of July

Seaport noted an uptrend in business volumes in the second half of July post the tournament’s conclusion on July 19. Although Typhoon Noul, which passed by Hong Kong, temporarily affected operations, market dynamics began demonstrating recovery signs from the football event’s impact.

Recovery Projections for August and September

Seaport is optimistic regarding an August recovery, projecting a 4.5% year-on-year increase in GGR due to the return of tourists who delayed trips during the World Cup. For September, the forecast anticipates an 11% year-on-year rise in GGR.

Financial Estimates for Third and Fourth Quarters

Seaport estimates that Macau's GGR in August could reach MOP23.16 billion, with an average daily revenue of MOP747 million. This prediction indicates a 1.8% annual rise for the third quarter and 3.2% for the fourth quarter. There is growing confidence that the market will regain momentum following a sluggish July.

Support from Policy and Liquidity

Additional factors aiding recovery include improved liquidity conditions and favorable visa policies. The strengthening of the renminbi further enhances customer liquidity, creating a more supportive background for Macau's premium segments.

Policy and Economic Influence

Such policy backing is vital for Macau to reclaim its attraction as a premier gaming destination. Seaport believes that demand will increase as the temporary effects of the World Cup dissipate.

Persisting Risks

Despite optimism, Seaport cautions about lingering risks. China’s economic conditions, restrictions on money or travel to Macau, and potential adverse weather could impact this recovery. The nighttime base-mass segment in Macau remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Conclusion

Overall, while challenges exist, Macau casino GGR recovery in August and September appears promising, driven by previously postponed demand. Close monitoring of existing risks is necessary to achieve sustainable growth moving forward.